So CNBC’s Trillion Dollar Survey questions 60 of the nation’s “top money managers”, and they yell BULL in 2008…
Well, did you expect them to say anything different, whether we are on the verge of a modern-era Great Depression, a light recession, flat year or a truly bullish year?
89% of them said the S&P finishes higher. I would disagree, but not empatically. I could see it return 1 or 2 percent as easily as I can see it being down 1 or 2 percent by the end of 2008.
22% said up higher than 10%
2% said up 10%
33% said up 8%
21% said up 6%
So 1 out of 4 are telling us to expect 10% or more return when the latest modest predictions say a recession is a coin flip, with the other side of the coin being no/slowed growth?
If you haven’t seen the pattern develop, virtually all the commentary be anyone “tied” into the market (fund managers, execs, etc… not investors or honest economists) has purposefully underestimated or discounted the issues at hand all the way up to and even after they exploded in the faces of investors.
I wish I had the time to track all such surveys and interviews of the last year to see what kind of contrarian indicator those are on average.
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